Us Elections: After the Presidential Debates

The American electoral process is a beauty to behold. With a highly charged and sometimes ferocious party primaries spanning over 18 months, including pre-primary campaigns, the American democratic process is but one short step from being perfect. And that is just the human factor.

The american can insistence and dependence on capability and eligibility of all public office seekers, especially the President and his deputy, has a compulsive and consuming passion about it. America, with a self imposed schizophrenic burden of “the world’s policeman,” cannot afford to negotiate the quality or attitude of its president or vice president.

The first televised presidential debate took place between the young and charismatic John Fitzgerald Kennedy and Richard M. Nixon on September 25, 1960, before over 70 million Americans. Kennedy was able to convert the three major handicaps of immaturity, youthfulness and inexperience leveled against him into an outstanding asset and victory for the Democratic Party.

The Obama/McCain presidential debate of September 26, 2008 was enormously impressive, with John McCain taking the lead in international affairs and Barack Obama making McCain look like a rookie on matters like national security, Iraq and Afghanistan – areas hitherto referred to as McCain strongholds. While Obama was in his elements as one of the best oral communicators of all time, McCain showed signs of frustration when he openly used words like “naivete,” and “you don’t understand” to give the impression that Obama was a dunce. In the poll that followed, Obama was rated 53%, as against McCain’s 46% – a clear victory for Obama. Also, Obama’s courtesy towards McCain proved very effective, while McCain’s aggressive and insolence towards Obama only showed a deep personal frustration.

And so, when the vice presidential candidates took the stage on October 3, 2008 at Washington University, St. Louis, in Missouri, it was a spectacle that was not only refreshing but also very defining for both parties. The Republican candidate, Governor Sarah Palin, did not look like the wobbly lily livered mass many expected her to be. Some even expected her to slump and be carried away from the stage. She matched Democrat’s vice-presidential candidate Senator Joe Biden word for word in terms of physical temperament and demeanor. However Joe Biden’s years of experience as a senator and Washington insider gave him the day as shown by the post-debate polls of 51%- 36% in favour of Biden. I am of the opinion that Palin was over- scripted and overstuffed with debate materials in such a short time, hence the diplomatically skipped answers and intellectual free-lancing on her part.
First Part of the 2nd debate in Nashvile Click here and watch the followings videos

Americans are very keen observers, and sensitive, too. Just a week after the first presidential debate, the CNN poll of polls came out with its first verdict: Obama 49%, McCain 43%. The polls from the battle ground states also showed a significant shift in Obama’s favour. Florida, which was split between both candidates with 46% apiece on September 23, 2008 shifted to Obama’s favour at 51% and McCain 47% by September 30. West Virginia on September 24 polled McCain 50% and Obama 46%, but just six days after the presidential debate, Obama had taken over West Virginia 53% to McCain 44% – a very significant shift. It was in Minnesota that Obama got his greatest surge – 54% to McCain’s 43% – an 11-digit lead. Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Missouri and Colorado all had their surge, but to degrees. Also, news came on October 3 from the Republican camp that McCain was pulling his entire campaign machinery out of Michigan – a key battleground state where the Republican Party won in 2000 and 2004 under President George W. Bush

This news came as a rude shock to most Republicans who believe that this was a tactical blunder on the “Maverick’s” part. This may, perchance, be another maverick decision, like choosing Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate. Another maverick and tactless decision was his decision to abandon campaign and proceed immediately to Washington to “personally ensure” that Congress pass the $700bn George Bush rescue package for the economy. When McCain saw that passing the bill was not a quick fix, he left Washington when the House of Representatives threw it out on September 29; and when the $700bn bailout package was passed, 108 members of his own party voted against it. What a pity. What an irony. What a tragedy for McCain!

But the polls are not moving Obama’s way simply because he has great communication skills but because fortuitous circumstances and events have almost placed the American presidency on his laps.

If Senator Barack Obama becomes America’s 44th president, he must thank the crash of Wall Street for his good fortune. In August, America’s twin mortgage bankers Fanny Mae & Freddie Mac crashed and government took over their management to save the already suffering home owners from suffocating foreclosure problems. On September 15, Lehman Brothers, America’s biggest investment bank filed for bankruptcy protection as both Barclays Bank and Bank of America refused to discuss a bailout plan with them. On the same day, America’s biggest brokerage firm, Merrill Lynch, was bought over by the Bank of America for a mere $50bn. The Bank of America had bought over Countrywide Financial in similar circumstances in April 2007. If Fanny Mae /Freddie Mac, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch killed the American economy, then AIG, with its global multinational link, nailed the coffin and sang nunc dimities to the repose of the soul of America’s troubled economy.

The American economy has never had it this bad since the 1929 recession. Today, America has a national debt of $11tn and a national budget deficit of $482bn. Added to this gloomy picture, 159,000 Americans lost their jobs in the month of September 2008 alone, bringing total loss of jobs for the year to a whopping 760,000. Right now in California, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has announced that his state has gone bankrupt and will be unable to pay wages for the month of October. There is no state or person who has not felt the grim reality of America’s economic tragedy. And Americans have identified McCain with President George Bush’s wasteful economic policies in Iraq and other places like Guantanamo. In Iraq, between $10bn and $12bn is being expended monthly. In fact, the American economy is bleeding profusely and the $700bn bailout package was just a tourniquet to stop it.

Americans will decide on November 4 whether they want to tread the same tortuous path Bush has taken them through these past eight years of torture, poverty, unmitigated suffering, joblessness, homelessness and a soul-racking financial slavery only comparable to the Great Depression of 1929-1934, when Americans sold their personal belongings by the roadside.

The worsening economy has had a great impact on the election in favour of Obama. 68% Americans believe that Obama can handle the economy better, while only 50% think same of McCain. 61% Americans believe that Obama has won the election, while 30%, among them Republicans, believe that their flagbearer has lost the battle. This is because Obama has successfully linked McCain to the failed policies of Bush, who has now tied with President Richard Nixon’s 20% rating (lowest in American history), which forced him to resign after the Watergate scandal in 1974.

Any of the candidates need 270 electoral votes to win the election. Obama has 250 electoral votes, as opposed to McCain’s 189. The fight for the battleground states has reached bare knuckle stage as Obama gains much ground in the traditional Republican states of Montana, North Carolina, Nevada and West Virginia where the Democratic Party has not won a presidential election since 1964 in a state like N. Carolina and since 1976 in Montana.

The second presidential debate concluded on October 8 at Belmont University in Nashville-Tennessee, and it has decided the election in favour of Obama who had a CNN poll lead of 24 points at 54% to John McCain’s 30%.

article from www.punchng.com

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